Message from Director General
Dear Members,
As Governor RBI has brought out in his statement, the global economy continues to face daunting challenges of elevated inflation, high levels of debt, tight and volatile financial conditions, continuing geopolitical tensions, fragmentations and extreme weather conditions. Global growth is likely to remain low in the current year and next few years, despite the upward revision in the global growth forecast for 2023 by the IMF. World merchandise trade volume growth is projected by the WTO to decelerate from 2.7 per cent in 2022 to 1.7 per cent in 2023. Headline inflation is easing unevenly across countries and remains above the target in major economies. While the pace of monetary tightening has been scaled down, policy rates could stay higher for longer. Thanks to encouraging domestic demand, India is, however, expected to withstand these external headwinds far better than many other countries Real GDP growth for 2023-24 is projected at 6.5 per cent with Q1 at 8.0 per cent; Q2 at 6.5 per cent; Q3 at 6.0 per cent; and Q4 at 5.7 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1:2024-25 is projected at 6.6 per cent.
While Merchandise Exports are down by 15.1% to 102.68 billion in Q1 on YoY basis, Services exports have increased marginally by 5% to 80.03 billion. As regards SEZs, exports of Goods and Services declined by 12%, exports of Goods declined by 22%, export of Services by 3%. Sale of Goods to DTA from SEZs declined by 16%. Highest exports of Goods were from Kandla Zone constituting 58.2% of total exports of Goods, which declined by 33%. Next was Vishakhapatnam zone constituting 12.5% of total export of Goods which increased by 20%. Highest exports of Goods were for Petroleum Products constituting 46% of total exports of Goods from all groups/sectors, which declined by 32%. Next was for Engineering Goods constituting 13% of total export of Goods which declined by 9%.
You will be happy to know that EPCES has taken a new initiative of bringing out monthly Trade bulletin providing detailed country-wise, commodity-wise analysis of exports and imports of goods and services for the benefit of members. EPCES service for replying to queries of members with assistance from Grant Thornton, our knowledge partner has been quite popular. EPCES has also engaged PwC as consultant to prepare a “To-Do List” of regulatory and infrastructure gaps for NSEZ, SEEPZ and MEPZ based on interactions with the units there. They have held discussions with members in NSEZ, MPEZ. SEEPZ, VSEZ and KSEZ to take their feedback.
EPCES has been regularly following up with Government for early enactment of the proposed DESH Bill and coverage of SEZs and EOUs under the RoDTEP scheme. It is understood that now there is a broad agreement on key issues and soon Cabinet approval might be taken for the revised DESH Bill to be placed in the winter Session of the Parliament for consideration.
As we continue to navigate through the challenges that lie ahead, we remain committed to sharing timely and relevant information through our website and publications, and keeping you apprised of our ongoing initiatives and programs. Together, we can forge ahead towards a promising future for the international trade industry, marked by resilience, sustainability, and progress.
With best wishes,
Alok V Chaturvedi